The recent Trends in Gurgaon Residential and Commercial real estate Sector

gurgaon

Gurgaon real estate has always been a matter of discussion in the Indian real estate market. Gurgaon is counted among the top-notch location in the residential and commercial real sector alike.

Owing to its wonderful location advantages, Gurgram is regarded as one of the best real estate market in India in terms of revenue collection. The location is ideal for many big industries, offices, multinational companies, corporate buildings, and other commercial setups.

It also houses a large number of entertainment hubs, shopping complexes, high rise malls, food courts, lounges and so on. The recent development in the transportation system which has a huge and wide network of metro rails, roadways and excellent connectivity to the international airport and railways station is an added advantage in Gurgaon.

However, the trend has not remained the same throughout. Like any other real estate market, Gurgaon real estate has also undergone several changes and transformations in trends with each year. There are a few recent trends observed in Gurgaon Residential as well as commercial property sector.

Here, we attempt at looking closely towards each of them and discussing them in brief.

Affordable Housing

With the launch of Affordable housing policy, the real estate section, especially in Gurgaon, has flowed with heavy investments. The major part of the investment in the real estate has been coming from affordable housing.

This trend is most likely to continue in 2019 as well. Government incentives provided to both developers as well as the homebuyers is accelerating the demand and supply in this segment.

The government has recently announced to extend the benefit of Credit Link Subsidy Scheme (CLSS) on home loans for the Middle Income Group (MIG) under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (Urban) till March 2020. Under this scheme, a subsidy of up to ₹ 2.67 lakh on home loans can be availed by the homebuyers.

Factors boosting the realty sector in Gurugram

According to Vineet Relia, managing director of SARE Homes, Gurugram is one of the fastest emerging realty destinations in the NCR, having commercial, as well as residential properties.

She further adds to this: “New Gurugram enjoys excellent connectivity through the National Highway-8, Dwarka Expressway (Northern Peripheral Road) and Kundli-Manesar-Palwal Expressway. This location is accessible from Indira Gandhi International (IGI) Airport, Sohna Road, Golf Course Road, and Delhi. The city offers various property options at competitive prices and hence, can be considered as a vibrant realty destination. The shifting of the Kherki Daula toll to Manesar will boost connectivity to the area.”

The REITs question

As experts suggest, the first Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) in the country will be launched in 2019. REITs were introduced in the year 2008 in India, followed by the issue of the first draft guidelines on the subject in 2013.

Also, in the last few years, the hurdles which were holding it like the ask of clarity on tax implication have been removed by the government. “One of the major drivers for the growing interest of investors in the commercial office space has been the government’s move to bring in progressive modifications in India’s REIT policy in last three years, making it more market-friendly.

As a result, global investors have invested significant capital in acquiring large office assets for building their REIT portfolios in India,” said Samantak Das, chief economist, and head, JLL India.

Accelerated growth

In recent years, Gurgaon is emerging as a corporate hub as well as one of the best destinations for residential property. The excellent connectivity to the Delhi through the Dwarka Expressway, NH, Golf course road and prominent locations like Sohna road has contributed to making Gurgaon one among the most desired real estate location. It not only provides the residential space but is one of the ideal spaces for corporate businesses.

The shared or the co-working spaces and the co-living spaces have also contributed as the changing trend in commercial as well as the residential sector. The availability of space for rent as people are buying more and more property in Gurgaon for investment purposes has become a new trend.

Institutional investors can be seen as bullish on the market as the commercial office segment in emerging areas of Gurgaon also offers excellent residential development opportunities.

The Real Estate Bubble

The Real Estate Bubble

A soap bubble is a ball made of a thin film of soap dissolved in water. Soap bubbles are ephemeral, lasting a short time before bursting. There are also bubbles in the economy, classes of assets whose prices inflate like air in an expanding balloon and then collapse.

The expansion of asset-price bubbles is unsustainable, as the prices rise above what is warranted by normal returns and demands. The asset prices crash. A recent bubble was the technology boom of the late 1990s, when Internet and other stocks rose to levels that could not be justified from the likely profits of the firms.

The most important bubble in the economy is that of real estate. There has been a real estate cycle with a duration of 18 years since the early 1800s. Real estate booms have often become a bubble. It happened during the 1920s in the US, especially in Florida. It happened in Japan during the 1980s. And it is happening again now in the US.

The last bottom of the real estate cycle in the US was in 1990, when there was a recession. Real estate prices have been rising since then, and were not at all deterred by the downturn of 2001. Real estate speculation has carried real estate prices in some parts of the US, such as California, to heights that cannot be sustained when interest rates rise as the Federal Reserve reverses its low-interest policy. Another crash is coming.

Henry George, the American economist and social reformer of the latter 1800s, originated one of the first theories of business cycles. The basic cause, he said, was land speculation. During an economic boom, at first, a growing demand for real estate is met by reducing vacancies. But then new real estate is constructed, and rent and land values rise. Speculators notice this and buy land expecting to sell at higher prices later. This speculative demand, added to the demand for use, carries land prices so high that investments in enterprise become unprofitable. Land becomes priced for expected future uses, rather than present-day uses.

The fall in new investments then reduces demands for labor and goods, which then reduces other demands, and the whole economy falls into a recession and then a depression. Faced with rising vacancies, real estate prices collapse, bankruptcies rise, loans default, banks fail, and then the cycle begins anew. This theory of the business cycle was original with George and not part of the previous classical school thought. Georgist theory, which I coined as ‘geoclassical’ for emphasizing land, was a major advance in classical thought.

Even though a third of investment is related to real estate, the real estate cycle is ignored in neoclassical business-cycle theory. Mainstream economic doctrine tells us that unexpected shocks create the fluctuations in the economy. But the regularity of the major business cycle cannot be explained by random shocks. Neoclassical economic fails to explain the trade cycle.

The Austrian school of economic thought has its own theory of the business cycle, which does pay attention to real estate. In the Austrian theory, an injection of money into the banking system artificially reduces interest rates, as indeed has been happening in the US in recent years with the Fed increasing the money supply by 25 percent since 2001. With rates so low, borrowing for long-term slow-maturing investments – such as real estate construction and purchase – becomes profitable.

The money expansion is unsustainable; monetary inflation causes price inflation. As prices and interest rates rise, many of these projects become unprofitable. Austrian economists call them ‘malinvestments,’ investments that looked promising when interest rates and other prices were lower, but are not profitable when the price distortion caused by the money expansion reverses. The reduction and abandonment of investment projects leads to a depression.

The Austrian and the Georgist explanations are complementary. The Austrian half emphasizes the role of money and interest rates, and the geoclassical half emphasizes the importance of land and the role of land speculation. A geo-Austrian synthesis creates a powerful business-cycle theory that is consistent with history and goes a long way in explaining major business cycles.

The article ‘This Inflated House’ by Mark Thornton in the August 2004 Free Market journal, published by the Ludwig von Mises Institute, illustrates the Austrian-school attention to real estate. Thornton notes the widespread practice of extracting equity from real estate as owners have refinanced at lower interest rates. As recognized by the Austrian school, monetary inflation often does not at first lead to rising prices in consumer goods. The injection of money often first goes into investments, commodities, and land purchases.

As Thornton explains, ‘the cause of higher home prices is that the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates, and thus mortgage rates, at historically low rates so that people find it easier to finance homes.’ Real estate is bought mostly with borrowed money, and lower interest rates keep the financing cost, the monthly payments, low, even as real estate prices rise. Banking practices contribute to the bubble as they make interest-only loans with no money down. Lending standards typically relax as the bubble approaches its peak.

But the collateral of land value is an illusion. Land has no cost of production, and its price can fall to zero. But why should the banker worry? The bank deposits are insured by the federal government! If the bank fails, the government will bail out the depositors. This encourages more risky loans, which provide temporary profits and perhaps more stock options and bonuses for the banking executives.

Also, home loans can be sold in the secondary market facilitated by agencies which were established by the federal government. As Thornton tells it, ‘The Federal Reserve and the Mac-May family (Freddie, Fannie, Sallie, etc.) have conspired to create a housing bubble in the US.’ It’s not a secret conspiracy but simply all these agencies breathing together to blow up the housing balloon that eventually has to burst.

Thornton says that it ‘is difficult to predict how long bubbles will last,’ but the geoclassical half of the geo-Austrian theory does provide an indication. Historically, the real-estate cycle has had a duration of 18 years, aside from the interruption of World War II. That puts the next real estate bottom around 2008. If past patterns continue, and so far they are right on schedule, we can expect the next recession to take place towards the end of this decade. With all the distortions caused by monetary policy and real-estate speculation and lax bank lending, the recession could be a major crash and the worst depression since the 1930s, an ‘economic nightmare,’ as Thornton calls it. And that nightmare does not even take into account the threat of terrorist attacks or the effects of continuing war and a possible oil crisis.

What is clear is that the tragedy and madness of the business cycle is not a natural outcome of a nonexistent free market, but caused by foolish government policy. Two remedies are essential: free banking and the public collection of land rent. Free-market banking would eliminate the monopolization of money and manipulation of interest rates by central banks such as the Federal Reserve, and leave money expansion to a competitive market of private banks. The elimination of taxes on income, sales, and produced wealth, replaced by tapping land rent for public revenue, would take the profit out of market-hampering land speculation fueled by tax-funded public works along with monetary inflation. Both reforms are necessary in order to completely eliminate the business cycle and the agony of business failures and idled workers.

But both reforms are ignored and disparaged by mainstream economics, so they are not enacted or even talked about. At least those who understand geo-Austrian theory will be warned in advance and can arrange their affairs to minimize the losses that others will suffer from.

Mortgage Rates and Options Rise in El Paso

Mortgage Rates and Options Rise in El Paso

Recent mortgage rates have hit the highest point in years which will most likely slow home sales in El Paso.  Home prices are continuing to climb which means that home buyers need low rates to afford to buy new homes.  Many lenders now offer creative mortgages in an effort to lure more home buyers back into the El Paso market.

Creative mortgages such as interest-only programs, piggyback loans, payment option loans, and adjustable rate mortgages are tempting offers but for many first time home buyers they can be misleading.  Some loan options lead consumers to take out a loan amount that is too large based on their income.  On paper it may look affordable but once you extend much of your monthly income on a mortgage, you may struggle to meet other financial obligations.  Interest-only mortgages may appear to look good because they make the monthly payment less, but those home buyers are not building equity on their home

People need to be careful when they choose alternative loan options.  If they are not paying for it in the interest rate, they will be paying for it somehow in the cost.  The best way to protect yourself is to talk to a mortgage broker you trust and have them explain every aspect of the options you have in order to make the best informed decision.